Why It’s Now Easier to Underestimate Your Expenses and Overspend

Many people have a gap between what they think they spend and what they actually spend. This gap has widened recently as the financial and psychological effects of higher prices further strain people’s budgets.

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Elevated inflation has rippled through American’s wallets for more than a year now. Some have cut back, while others have increased their spending to keep up. Credit-card balances were staying relatively flat for a while, but have jumped higher recently. 

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the average household’s credit-card balance was $9,990, up 9% from in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to WalletHub, a consumer-finance website. Meanwhile, the average credit-card interest rate rose to a record high of about 20% last week, according to Bankrate. 

Financial advisers say the larger amount of credit-card debt while rates are higher is one indication that some Americans are spending more than they think they are. This type of spending can reduce people’s ability to pay for important items down the road, such as college for a child or even fund their own retirement. More immediately, it will put people in costlier debt.

“If people spend too much on credit, they could end up trapped in a cycle of debt,” said Courtney Alev, consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma. 

Spending less isn’t always possible when everything from groceries to travel is generally more expensive. Still, people can find ways to cut back if they understand more about why they are overspending and take a closer look at their finances.

Inflation on Top of Inflation

The power of compounding is a boon to investors, but not to shoppers. 

Money grows much faster than most people expect because interest is earned on interest, said Michael Liersch, head of Wells Fargo’s advice and planning center. A similar concept applies to inflation: prices rise and if inflation remains high, prices continue to grow on top of already inflated prices, leaving people off guard.

“People get constantly surprised that their money isn’t going as far as they thought it would,” he said.

The cost of eating out and going for drinks continues to take Dina Lyon aback. Even though the 36-year-old married mother of one is dining out and ordering in far less than she did a year ago, some prices still give her sticker shock.

“The difference between cooking at home—about $10 for nice pasta and quick sauce from canned tomatoes—versus Italian takeout of $50 is astronomical,” said Ms. Lyon, who lives in Brooklyn, N.Y.

Outdated Budgets

People tend to underestimate their future spending in large part because they base their predictions on typical expenses that come to mind easily, said Abigail Sussman, a professor of marketing at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. 

She and other researchers found that when people are coming up with predictions, they tend to think about what they usually spend money on—such as groceries, rent, and gas—and base their predictions primarily on these expenses. They are less likely to consider atypical expenses, such as car repairs or birthday presents, the researchers found. 

This pattern is particularly problematic when inflation is high, said Prof. Sussman. When the price of the same basket of items increases, people may not account for these price increases in their future budgets, she said. 

Further, times of stress cause people to be less intentional about tracking their money, said Mr. Liersch. They might also spend more than they know they can afford to soothe feelings including anxiety and depression.

According to a recent survey by Credit Karma, 39% of Americans identify as emotional spenders (defined by the study as someone who spends money to cope with emotional highs and lows.)

Take Control 

You have a better chance of staying under budget if you become more aware of your spending instead of sticking your head in the sand, financial advisers said.

One thing Adam Alter, a professor of marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business, does is create a line item in his monthly budget for one-off expenses, such as an unexpected medical bill. This gives him a cushion in his budget and enables him to more fully examine how much he is spending each month, said Prof. Alter, who has studied overspending. 

People may also wish to include an escalating buffer into their budgets of say, 2% to 5% a year, to account for inflation, he said. 

Jay Zigmont, a financial planner in Water Valley, Miss., looks at clients’ total take-home income from the year, subtracts everything they must spend money on such as their mortgage and how much they saved. The remaining number is how much they spent on discretionary spending.  

In most cases, clients are surprised they spent so much, he said.

Once people know how much they spend, Britta Koepf, a financial planner in Independence, Ohio, suggests they practice mindful spending. Before any purchase, ask yourself if you really want or need what you are purchasing. Frequently, the answer is yes, but sometimes waiting five seconds will prevent you from overspending, she said.

You can also practice mindfulness by delaying purchases further. 

“A lot of the time, if I tell myself that I will purchase it next week, I find that I am no longer interested a week later,” she said.

Write to Veronica Dagher at Veronica.Dagher@wsj.com